Analysis of potential outcomes of mass vaccination program against SARS-COV2 virus
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Dr. Philip McMillan discusses Gert Vanden Bossche’s predictions on SARS-COV2 virus reaction to mass vaccination. • 0:01
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No guarantee on accuracy of predictions, but considering all possibilities is crucial for risk management. • 0:21
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Gert’s accurate predictions in the past raise concerns about potential worst outcomes. • 0:46
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Gert warns about poor neutralizing capacity in vaccinated populations leading to spread of highly infectious variants. • 1:28
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Emphasis on prospective analysis based on understanding virus-host interplay rather than standard modeling. • 3:05
Impact of mass vaccination on virus evolution and spread of more infectious variants
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Increasing immune pressure from mass vaccination favors more infectious variants. • 3:57
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Higher vaccine coverage rates lead to dominance of more infectious variants. • 4:03
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More infectious variants like Omicron may have an advantage due to immune pressure. • 4:34
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Omicron increases infectiousness by evading neutralizing antibodies. • 4:59
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Vaccinated individuals may have poor neutralizing capacity against Omicron. • 6:04
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Diminished neutralizing capacity results in higher infection-enhancing antibodies. • 7:08
Impact of Omicron variant on viral characteristics and vaccine response
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Omicron may have the advantage of spreading further due to non-neutralizing antibodies enhancing infection. • 7:26
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Scientific community debates on the term ‘antibody dependent enhancement of infection’ in relation to Omicron. • 7:45
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Omicron is perceived as less virulent and may lead to decreased shedding of the virus by vaccinated individuals. • 8:46
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Increased infectiousness, decreased virulence, and shedding patterns are observed with Omicron. • 9:25
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Resistance to neutralizing antibodies may inhibit trans infection and viral replication on dendritic cells. • 10:51
Implications of low neutralizing antibodies on SARS-COV2 viral spread and virulence
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Paper discusses how lectins enhance SARS-CoV-2 infection in cells with low ACE2 levels. • 11:37
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Virus can spread from cell to cell without using ACE2 in cells with low ACE2 levels. • 12:20
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Neutralizing antibodies may increase infectiousness in upper respiratory tract. • 13:04
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Antibodies predicted to promote cell-to-cell spread in lower respiratory tract, potentially increasing virulence. • 13:32
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Poor neutralizing capacity could lead to super variants with high infectivity and virulence. • 14:35
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Current phase shows high infectiousness but not high virulence, potential for change with viral evolution. • 15:02
Contingency planning for high infection and virulence scenarios in COVID-19 pandemic
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Reflecting on risk management in pandemic situations • 15:30
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Acknowledging expertise of Gert in the field • 15:39
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Creating contingency plans for worst-case scenarios • 16:07
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Strategizing to reduce risk of increased mortality in COVID-19 • 16:23
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Sharing Gert’s recommendations and personal ideas • 16:32
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Inviting audience to join the journey on Substack for more information • 16:49
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Emphasizing the ongoing work and questions in understanding COVID-19 • 17:05